April 3rd, 2007


[LJ Idol] By the numbers.

This week we had a very strategic play in LJ Idol. So I remembered the old saying, "There is truth in numbers." So I thought, I'd look at the past 5 weeks of LJ Idol and see what makes a good post.

I started by using all the contestants from the current poll and putting them into a spreadsheet. Yes, there is a survivor bias here, but I was willing to accept that inaccuracy. But hey, this is LJ Idol, so the Survivor bias should be canceled out, because we're a spin-off of a different reality show. ;)

I took the numbers from everyone's mutual friends. If that data wasn't available, used just the generic friends or friend of category. (Insert joke about Friends here.)

I then took the number of votes everyone got in the last 5 polls.

Then what to do with all that data? Hmmm.

My first attempt at an equation was this:

(Total votes for that person that week - Average number of votes for all that week)/Friends list

I looked at those numbers and then decided that it put too much weight on folks who did better than the average number of votes. There would still be a large friends list bias in those numbers.

Then, I decided to change it to this:

(Total votes for that person that week - Personal Average over the 5 weeks)/Friends List

I liked that number a little better, but I felt that put too much emphasis on just how they did over their average, this is a contest after all.

So finally I came up with:

(Total votes for that person that week - (Personal Average over the 5 weeks +Average number of votes for all that week)/2 )/Friends List

That seemed a good balance of doing better than your average, but also incorporating doing better than the group.

Now, I'm sure if I did more research, I could get a better number for the F-list bias. But, this was just for my personal use.

But after all that, I decided I was too lazy to go back and actually read all those posts.

So instead, I give you the top 5 for the last five weeks, based on the numbers described above:

3/2/07 Vote

controlld_chaos 34.04%
dizzydog 12.91%
mysticpenguin 8.64%
evansmj 8.4%
dydan 7.29%

3/9/07 Vote
mysticpenguin 17.75%
zebrapix 11.24%
imafarmgirl 10.55%
beldar 7.64%
strangestgirl 4.23%

3/16/07 Vote
brandedeclipse 11.84%
zebrapix 10.19%
beldar 9.51%
popfiend 7.73%
welfy 6.78%

bettybaker 15.46%
thedemkopartsix 14.33%
jesterstear 6.83%
brandedeclipse 6.37%
evansmj 4.26%

zebrapix 8.51%
brandedeclipse 6.22%
popfiend 4.43%
beldar 4.28%
kithan 3.49%

(no subject)

I escaped from Outpost Techempage!

I killed Songwind the cleaning droid, Nikkileah the red-shirted ensign, Jadedmyrrhmaid the cleaning droid, Woodspryte the medibot, Brandedeclipse the medibot, Shawnj the maintenance droid, Shiranaihoshi the engineer, Softlywhispered the nutrivend drinks machine, Ambassador Jfargo, Mary Wroth the nutrivend drinks machine, Gows the red-shirted ensign, Comfortchaos the security officer, Teriel the cleaning droid, Deadspeaker the nutrivend drinks machine, Nursemae the red-shirted ensign, Anchasta the tribble, Alexjay the tribble, Sagefyre the nutrivend drinks machine, Booraven22 the red-shirted ensign, Gafferstapeman the nutrivend drinks machine, Rintheamazing the cleaning droid, Ambassador Ca Blondi, Rpk the red-shirted ensign and Insanity Jane the cleaning droid.

I salvaged a Vixyish model hazmat suit, the Log of the USS Simplysakka, a DALBINO83-10 plasma rifle, a Sionainnian artefact, a Heart0fg0ldian raygun, an Ijkian raygun, a Writerbrainian artefact, a Regalpewterian deathblade, Trillsie's commbadge, a Tdarlingian raygun, a That-Sakka-Girl model hazmat suit, Theemeraldqueen's commbadge, a Kithanian raygun, the Log of the USS Naamah Darling, Placesyouhaunt's commbadge, an Auroralamourian raygun, a Sickhippoian artefact, a Daddyschula screwdriver, Angelictouch352's commbadge, a MOONFI-5400 supercomputer, an THEFERRETT-120 phaser, an Octoberlandian raygun and 398 galacticredits.

Score: 1013

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