Techempage (techempage) wrote,

[LJ Idol] By the numbers.

This week we had a very strategic play in LJ Idol. So I remembered the old saying, "There is truth in numbers." So I thought, I'd look at the past 5 weeks of LJ Idol and see what makes a good post.

I started by using all the contestants from the current poll and putting them into a spreadsheet. Yes, there is a survivor bias here, but I was willing to accept that inaccuracy. But hey, this is LJ Idol, so the Survivor bias should be canceled out, because we're a spin-off of a different reality show. ;)

I took the numbers from everyone's mutual friends. If that data wasn't available, used just the generic friends or friend of category. (Insert joke about Friends here.)

I then took the number of votes everyone got in the last 5 polls.

Then what to do with all that data? Hmmm.

My first attempt at an equation was this:

(Total votes for that person that week - Average number of votes for all that week)/Friends list

I looked at those numbers and then decided that it put too much weight on folks who did better than the average number of votes. There would still be a large friends list bias in those numbers.

Then, I decided to change it to this:

(Total votes for that person that week - Personal Average over the 5 weeks)/Friends List

I liked that number a little better, but I felt that put too much emphasis on just how they did over their average, this is a contest after all.

So finally I came up with:

(Total votes for that person that week - (Personal Average over the 5 weeks +Average number of votes for all that week)/2 )/Friends List

That seemed a good balance of doing better than your average, but also incorporating doing better than the group.

Now, I'm sure if I did more research, I could get a better number for the F-list bias. But, this was just for my personal use.

But after all that, I decided I was too lazy to go back and actually read all those posts.

So instead, I give you the top 5 for the last five weeks, based on the numbers described above:

3/2/07 Vote

controlld_chaos 34.04%
dizzydog 12.91%
mysticpenguin 8.64%
evansmj 8.4%
dydan 7.29%

3/9/07 Vote
mysticpenguin 17.75%
zebrapix 11.24%
imafarmgirl 10.55%
beldar 7.64%
strangestgirl 4.23%

3/16/07 Vote
brandedeclipse 11.84%
zebrapix 10.19%
beldar 9.51%
popfiend 7.73%
welfy 6.78%

bettybaker 15.46%
thedemkopartsix 14.33%
jesterstear 6.83%
brandedeclipse 6.37%
evansmj 4.26%

zebrapix 8.51%
brandedeclipse 6.22%
popfiend 4.43%
beldar 4.28%
kithan 3.49%
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